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Articles

Articles written by the TacticRisk team on strategic foresight and security: original research, method and evidence to decide in complex environments. Several of these works have been published in specialized industry magazines.

Illustration of a pensive university student at dusk in front of the university

Security★ Featured

July 28, 20266 min

The sense of insecurity in university students: a study at a university in northern Argentina

A quantitative study on fear of crime among university students: 66% fear a crime on their commute, and the lack of lighting is the main perceived factor.

Map of influence and positions of the actors in a system

September 30, 20265 min

Actor analysis: mapping power in foresight

Actor analysis identifies who can drive or block a strategy and measures their real power. What it is, why it matters and which method is used in foresight.

Influence matrix between actors in the MACTOR analysis

September 30, 20266 min

MACTOR analysis: the power game between actors

MACTOR analysis maps the power, alliances and conflicts of the actors that condition a strategy. What it is, how it works and what it is for in foresight.

Influence and dependence matrix of the MICMAC analysis in a foresight study

September 30, 20266 min

MICMAC analysis: what it is and what it is for

MICMAC analysis measures the influence between variables to find the ones that truly move a system: what it is, how the influence–dependence matrix works, and what it is for in foresight.

Future scenarios, with the trend scenario as the baseline reference

September 30, 20265 min

Trend scenario: what it is and what it is for

The trend scenario is the future that results if the system keeps its current inertia. What it is, how it differs from the other scenarios and what it is for as a baseline.

Systematic scanning of the environment for signals of change (horizon scanning)

September 30, 20266 min

Horizon Scanning: spotting the signals of change

Horizon scanning explores the environment to detect trends, weak signals and disruptive events before they become obvious. What it is, how it works and what it is for in foresight.

Future scenarios in parallel coordinates built with the KASIM method

September 30, 20266 min

KASIM: how future scenarios are built

The KASIM method combines the possible states of the critical variables to build coherent future scenarios. What it is, how it works and what it is for in foresight.

Matrix of influences and positions between actors in the MACTOR method

September 30, 20265 min

MACTOR matrix: how the power of actors is measured

The MACTOR matrix is the tool that measures the influence between actors and their position toward the objectives. What it is, which matrices make it up and how to read it.

Comparison between the direct and indirect classification of variables in MICMAC²

September 30, 20265 min

MICMAC²: the indirect influences that decide

MICMAC² computes the indirect influences between variables (the second-order ones), often more decisive than the direct ones. What it is, what it reveals and what it is for.

Influence–dependence plane where the critical variables of a system are located

September 30, 20265 min

Critical variables: what they are and how to identify them

Critical variables are the few that govern the behavior of a system. What they are, why they matter and how they are identified in a foresight study.

Beyond the report: a person leaving a police station; below, the process Report → Investigation → Clearance → Recovery → Prevention

September 5, 20266 min

And after the report, what? From recording crime to results-based management in security

Filing a report cannot be the end point: it is the start of a process. Why security must move from counting activities to managing results (clearance, recovery, learning) in order to respond better toward 2036.

Youth trends: a young person with headphones and a phone surrounded by digital-culture icons; in the background, a police officer looking over the city

September 3, 20266 min

Between fashion and risk: weak signals in the new youth cultures

When does a youth trend stop being just culture and start becoming a security challenge? A foresight look at the weak signals of the new youth cultures and at a form of security able to anticipate rather than merely react.

Visualization of future scenarios in TacticRisk's Strategic Foresight platform

September 1, 20267 min

What is Strategic Foresight?

Strategic foresight doesn't predict the future: it builds the possible scenarios to decide today with evidence. What it is, what it's for, and the methodologies behind it.

TacticRisk's Foresight platform: analysis findings

Policies and Strategies for Participatory Security toward 2035. The Role of Communication between Community Policing and Society

A foresight analysis of the evolution of communication between police institutions and society, with strategies to strengthen a community-policing model toward 2035.

TacticRisk's Foresight platform: project control panel

Methodologies and tools for security planning

A tour of foresight-planning methodologies to anticipate change, reduce uncertainty and decide with strategic vision in security.

TacticRisk's Foresight platform: scenario map (KASIM)

Feminist futures of security: scenarios from northern Argentina

Future scenarios for security with a feminist perspective in northern Argentina toward 2036, and its role in more equitable and inclusive policies.

TacticRisk's Foresight platform: MICMAC plane of influence and dependence

Liquid youth: the new challenge for the security of the future

Liquid youth as an emerging security challenge: factors, future scenarios and more preventive, comprehensive policies.