What is the KASIM method
KASIM is the method that, within a strategic foresight study, builds the space of future scenarios. It takes the critical variables identified in earlier stages, defines the possible states of each one and combines them systematically to generate the coherent futures on which decisions can be made.
Its value is to organize uncertainty: instead of imagining a single probable future, KASIM lays out the range of possible futures and makes it possible to work with several at once.
From variables to scenarios
A scenario is not a prediction: it is a coherent combination of states of the key variables. If a variable can be high, medium or low, and there are several critical variables, the number of possible combinations grows fast. KASIM provides the method to filter out the incoherent combinations and keep the scenarios that make strategic sense.
The reference scenarios
Although every study generates its own scenarios, they are usually organized around three references:
| Scenario | What it represents | What it’s used for |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | The variables evolve in our favor | Defines the ambition and the opportunities. |
| Trend | The system follows its current inertia | The baseline it is all compared against. |
| Pessimistic / adverse | The variables evolve against us | Prepares the contingency plans. |
Designing the strategy with the three in mind (not just the one we prefer) is what makes it hold up across different contexts.
KASIM step by step
- Start from the critical variables identified with MICMAC.
- Define the possible states of each variable (for example: high, medium, low).
- Combine the states to generate the future configurations.
- Prune the incoherent or impossible combinations.
- Characterize and prioritize the resulting scenarios, visualizing them in parallel coordinates.
Why work with several scenarios
Betting on a single future is the most common way to get caught off guard. KASIM forces you to think in the plural: what happens if the environment improves, stays the same or deteriorates. That discipline reduces the margin of surprise and lets you make decisions today that widen tomorrow’s room to maneuver.
Where it fits in a foresight study
KASIM is the bridge between analysis and strategy: after horizon scanning explores the environment and MICMAC identifies the critical variables, KASIM builds the scenarios, and the MACTOR analysis shows which actors can push toward each one. You can see the full process on the Strategic Foresight page.
How to apply it
If your organization needs to plan without assuming a single future, KASIM provides the method to do it rigorously. At TacticRisk we apply it in our Strategic Foresight studies and teach it in the Foresight Workshops.