What is MACTOR analysis
MACTOR analysis (Méthode, Acteurs, Objectifs, Rapports de force) is the strategic foresight method that studies the power game between the actors that condition a system. It was developed by Michel Godet within the French School of Foresight and answers a question the other methodologies don’t address: who has the power to drive or block each future?
While MICMAC analyzes the variables and KASIM builds the scenarios, MACTOR puts the focus on the people and organizations whose decisions determine which of those scenarios materializes.
Why actors define the future
A scenario doesn’t come true by itself: it is pushed or held back by actors with their own interests. Ignoring that power game is why many technically correct strategies fail. MACTOR makes it possible to:
- Identify the key actors and measure their real power.
- Map their positions toward each strategic objective.
- Anticipate alliances and conflicts before they are triggered.
- Detect which critical variables are being driven or blocked by the actor dynamics.
What MACTOR analyzes
| Dimension | What it measures | What it’s for |
|---|---|---|
| Balance of forces | How much each actor influences the others | Ranks the actors by real power. |
| Position toward objectives | For, against or neutral on each objective | Reveals allies and opponents. |
| Convergences | Shared interests between actors | Anticipates possible alliances. |
| Divergences | Conflicting interests | Anticipates conflicts and blockages. |
The result is not a list of actors but a dynamic map of power weighted by real influence, not by a simple count.
MACTOR step by step
- Identify the actors relevant to the system.
- Build the matrix of influences between actors (who affects whom and how much).
- Position each actor toward the strategic objectives.
- Weight the positions by each actor’s real influence.
- Read the balance of forces per objective: viable, blocked or contested.
Where it fits in a foresight study
MACTOR closes the analysis: after exploring the environment with horizon scanning, identifying the critical variables with MICMAC and building the scenarios with KASIM, the actor analysis shows who can tip the balance toward each future. Together they make up the Corporate Futures Map you can see on the Strategic Foresight page.
How to apply it
If your strategy depends on actors with their own interests (regulators, competitors, allies, communities), MACTOR analysis lets you anticipate their game. At TacticRisk we apply it in our Strategic Foresight studies and teach it in the Foresight Workshops.