What is MICMAC²
MICMAC² is the phase of the MICMAC analysis that measures the indirect influences between the variables of a system: not how one variable affects another directly, but how it does so through third ones. It’s the part that gives the method its name (Multiplication Appliquée), because it is obtained by raising the matrix of influences to successive powers.
The direct analysis answers “does A influence B?”. MICMAC² answers something subtler and often more important: “does A influence B through C, D or E?”. Those chains of influence are invisible at first sight, yet they usually explain why a system behaves the way it does.
Direct vs. indirect influences
| Direct (MICMAC) | Indirect (MICMAC²) | |
|---|---|---|
| What it measures | A influences B immediately | A influences B through other variables |
| How it’s computed | Matrix of direct influences | The matrix raised to powers |
| What it reveals | The obvious structure of the system | The hidden chains of influence |
| Usefulness | First reading of the variables | Reorders and corrects that first reading |
Why they are often more decisive
A variable may look barely influential in the direct analysis and yet be decisive via the indirect route: it influences few variables, but those few move many others. MICMAC² brings to light that “second-order” power the direct analysis cannot detect.
The typical result is that some variables change quadrant: what seemed secondary turns out to be strategic, and vice versa. Ignoring indirect influences leads to focusing effort on the wrong variables.
What MICMAC² reveals
- Variables that change classification between the direct and the indirect analysis.
- Hidden priorities: factors that emerge as strategic only at second order.
- A more robust hierarchy of variables, less dependent on the obvious relationships.
Where it fits in the study
MICMAC² is applied right after the direct MICMAC analysis and refines the selection of critical variables before scenarios are built with KASIM. It’s a quality-control step: it ensures the scenarios are built on the variables that truly matter, not just the most visible ones.
How to apply it
If you want your foresight analysis not to stop at the obvious, the MICMAC² step is the one that reveals what lies underneath. At TacticRisk we apply it in our Strategic Foresight studies and teach it in the Foresight Workshops.