What is the trend scenario
The trend scenario is the future you get if the system keeps its current inertia, with no ruptures or changes of course: the prevailing trends extend and the variables evolve according to their recent behavior. It is, in other words, the “default future” (what will probably happen if nobody does anything different).
Within a strategic foresight study, the trend scenario isn’t used to feel reassured, but as a point of comparison: it’s the reference against which the other possible futures are measured.
Trend, optimistic and pessimistic
The trend scenario is almost never analyzed on its own. It works alongside two other references:
| Scenario | What it assumes | Strategic role |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | The variables evolve in our favor | Marks the ambition and the opportunities. |
| Trend | The system follows its inertia | The baseline for comparison. |
| Pessimistic | The variables evolve against us | Prepares the contingency plans. |
Comparing the rest of the scenarios against the trend is what reveals how much room to maneuver the organization truly has: how far it can move toward the optimistic one or away from the pessimistic one through its decisions.
What it’s for
- Provide a realistic baseline against which to measure any strategy.
- Show the cost of not acting: sometimes the trend is already a problem.
- Size the effort needed to change course.
How it’s built
The trend scenario comes out of the KASIM method, which combines the possible states of the critical variables identified with MICMAC. The trend is the combination that extends the current states; the other scenarios arise from varying those states.
How to apply it
Knowing your trend scenario is knowing where you’re heading if you change nothing: the best basis for deciding whether you want to change it. At TacticRisk we build it in our Strategic Foresight studies and teach it in the Foresight Workshops.