What is MICMAC analysis
MICMAC analysis is a strategic-foresight method that measures the influence that the variables of a system exert on one another in order to identify which ones are truly decisive. Its name comes from the French Matrice d’Impacts Croisés (Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement) and it was formalized within the French School of Foresight by Michel Godet.
The underlying idea is simple but powerful: in any complex system (an organization, a territory, a market) not all variables weigh the same. Some condition the rest and others merely tag along. MICMAC separates them with evidence, not intuition, answering a key question of any strategic foresight study: which variables are worth focusing the analysis and the strategy on?
What it’s for
MICMAC is used to prioritize. When a system has dozens of variables, trying to control them all is impossible and, above all, inefficient. The method helps to:
- Identify the critical variables that govern the system’s behavior.
- Discard the low-relevance variables that consume attention without changing the outcome.
- Order the work ahead: the key variables are the ones that feed the scenario building.
- Reveal hidden influences: indirect relationships that aren’t visible at first sight but end up being decisive.
How it works: the influence–dependence matrix
The heart of the method is a cross-impact matrix. A panel of experts assesses, for each pair of variables, how much influence one has over the other (none, weak, medium or strong). From that matrix, two indicators are obtained per variable:
- Influence (motricity): how much that variable affects the rest of the system.
- Dependence: how much that variable is affected by the others.
By crossing the two axes, each variable falls into a quadrant that defines its strategic role.
The four types of variable
| Type of variable | Influence | Dependence | Role in the system |
|---|---|---|---|
| Driving (power) | High | Low | They condition the system; they are the input levers. |
| Key (linkage) | High | High | The most critical and unstable: any change propagates. |
| Dependent (output) | Low | High | They reflect the state of the system; effects, not causes. |
| Autonomous | Low | Low | Weakly connected; they add little to the overall dynamics. |
The key variables (high influence and high dependence) are the ones that matter most: they are unstable, hard to control, and any move in them ripples through the whole system. They are the central input for the next step of the study.
MICMAC step by step
- List the variables of the system from the environment scan (horizon scanning).
- Build the matrix of direct influences, assessing each pair of variables with a panel of experts.
- Compute influence and dependence of each variable by summing its influences.
- Place the variables on the influence–dependence plane and read their quadrants.
- Select the critical variables that will move on to the scenario stage.
From direct to indirect influences
Up to here, MICMAC measured direct influences (A influences B). But the method goes one step further: by raising the matrix to successive powers, it reveals the indirect influences (how one variable affects another through third ones), which often completely reorder the hierarchy of variables. That second-order analysis is important enough that we treat it separately: see it in detail in MICMAC²: the indirect influences.
Where MICMAC fits in a foresight study
MICMAC doesn’t work alone. It’s a piece within a wider process: the environment scan provides the variables, MICMAC identifies the critical ones, the KASIM method combines their possible states to build scenarios, and the MACTOR analysis maps the actors that can drive or block each path. Together they make up the Corporate Futures Map.
You can see how all these methodologies fit together on the Strategic Foresight page.
How to apply it
If your organization needs to decide where to focus its efforts in a complex environment, MICMAC analysis provides a rigorous basis to do so. At TacticRisk we apply it as part of our Strategic Foresight studies, and we also teach it in the Foresight Workshops for those who want to bring the method into their own team.